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Forum:
Armchair-GM
Yesterday at 6:37 p.m.
Thread:
guerin offseason take II
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Caerii</b></div><div>No one has any assurances that Chychrun will sign with their team until July 1.</div></div>
That's what negotiations are for. Lets not pretend the vast majority of trades like this (especially in the offseason) don't result in a new contract being agreed to prior to a trade going through.
Nothing would make me happier than seeing Ottawa get hosed in Chychrun deal, but its not realistic to think he's going to pull a Hanafin. And even if he does, Ottawa would probably just wait until the deadline than take an offer they don't think is reasonable. Or make more of a hockey trade (like going after a Necas or Ehlers).
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Yesterday at 6:04 p.m.
Thread:
guerin offseason take II
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>dgibb10</b></div><div>Chychrun is a rental now, hope this helps.
Retain 50% and hope for the hanifin return despite hanifin being a much better player</div></div>
Maybe if they wait until the 2025 deadline, but if he's traded in the off-season the return will be better (unless he refuses to sign a new contract). The only reason Hanifin returned what he did is because he was a rental who didn't give any assurances to Las Vegas that he would re-sign with them prior to the deal. The pressure point isn't as high in the offseason and there will be more interested parties.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Yesterday at 5:57 p.m.
Thread:
guerin offseason take II
I think Ottawa would want more for Chychrun (or at least more pick certainty), and should get it.
As for the other two, I just don't see the point for Montreal and NJ.
-Montreal's gunning for cap clarity in 2025 and probably don't want more depth forwards. Unless they need the cap space from other moves they're probably better off hoping Dvorak can stay healthy and play himself into being an in-demand rental.
-New Jersey traded for Allen to be their backup/1B goalie for next season, if they're trading for a goalie they're going to want a better goalie than Gustavsson.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Yesterday at 4:38 p.m.
Thread:
Canes
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Canesfan21_</b></div><div>You can go ahead and take them out of the sweepstakes then</div></div>
That's fine, there are other wingers available and will be more over the next couple of offseasons.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Yesterday at 4:23 p.m.
Thread:
Canes
Montreal declines, they aren't moving Guhle for Necas.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Yesterday at 4:23 p.m.
Thread:
Utah Thoughts
The UFA contracts except for Myers look like underpays and there isn't a reason for Utah or Montreal to make those trades.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Yesterday at 1:54 p.m.
Thread:
Do these trades work
The 2nd and 3rd trades definitely do not work, nor are they fair for the other teams.
-Utah is trying to build something sustainable, trading Bjugstad to add depth when they have a ton of cap space and a ridiculous number of extra picks makes no sense.
-Marner trade doesn't work for Montreal. The Kessel trade is a bad comparable because Kessel was younger and, most importantly, Toronto wasn't planning on being as bad as they were and didn't know where any of the picks would end up. They made that trade instead of an OS. Montreal knows one pick is 5th OA and expects the 2025 1st to be top-10. Even if Marner would re-sign in Montreal (and I highly doubt that would happen), he's not going to be a difference maker for them. If you want the Kessel trade, you need to target a team that's more win now (and shouldn't be).
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Yesterday at 12:10 p.m.
Thread:
Rabbit outta hat
Walker contract is light and the Montreal wouldn't have any interest in Fairbrother or Girard.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Yesterday at 12:07 p.m.
Thread:
CAR-MTL
No thanks.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Yesterday at 10:47 a.m.
Thread:
solid
The Mittelstadt and Drouin contracts are serious underpays (term and/or AAV), and Pittsburgh and Montreal definitely decline.
The bigger question though is what happens when Nichushkin's suspension is up mid-season? You can't accrue cap space with LTIR and you can't keep him on LTIR once the suspension is up.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Thu. at 5:54 p.m.
Thread:
my hope for next year
Philly trade makes no sense for the Flyers
Montreal would match, and Toronto can't OS with another teams picks or a 2024 pick.
Some of those contracts look light
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Thu. at 4:13 p.m.
Thread:
CAR-VAN-MTL
Montreal and Vancouver pass, these don't really come close to understanding why those teams would be interested in those players.
Hronek for Necas based deal makes much more sense, and leave the Habs out of it.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Thu. at 11:26 a.m.
Thread:
Sway this way
Montreal finally cleared their goalie logjam, you think they're going to pay any amount to create a new one for a goalie whose paid too much for way too long?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Thu. at 10:30 a.m.
Thread:
Gallagher Dump
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Sjbackseatgm</b></div><div>Sure, but what if they did due to other potential moves?</div></div>
The odds that the other potential moves would necessitate that are incredibly small, and the odds such moves wouldn't involve those picks is even smaller.
Like, I can spin it back with Montreal taking on Vlasic's contract if San Jose gives them Pittsburgh's 1st+, but its just not realistic.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Thu. at 10:25 a.m.
Thread:
mathesons value apparently
This is such an overreaction of selective view of proposals with how crazy some Necas asks have been.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Thu. at 10:23 a.m.
Thread:
Gallagher Dump
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Sjbackseatgm</b></div><div>Knew it was unrealistic but felt creative this morning. How is the fair value from a pure dump perspective here?</div></div>
Cap dumps don't work that way because the value depends on how much the team needs the space. Its team dependent. Montreal has 9 mil in space with a mostly full roster and can create 10.5 mil in LTIR room by putting Price on LTIR. They don't need the space.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Wed. at 6:07 p.m.
Thread:
If we were trying to get tougher to play against
-Not even taking Anderson and offering Poulin would convince Montreal to take Graves' contract, especially since the Habs don't need LD.
-Utah isn't getting any value they'd want or need in that kind of trade.
-Joshua is the only UFA contract that isn't well under market value.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Tue. at 4:04 p.m.
Thread:
Our GM cant use the word rebuild
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ledge_And_Dairy</b></div><div>That's just simply not true at all. At 5v5 Barron played 29.9% of his ice time vs Elite competition, whereas Harris and Kovacevic played 28.2% and 27.4% respectively against Elite competition. In that regard they were very close. The difference however is that while Kovacevic and Harris got primarily defensive zone starts (heavily for Kovacevic) Barron had the majority of his starts in the offensive zone. Also Harris and Kovacevic were regulars on the PK whereas Barron was not.
They won't dump him, he will almost certainly be in Montreal at camp but odds are he will get outplayed by at least one of Reinbacher or Mailloux and will likely be placed on waivers before the season starts. He could absolutely up his game this summer and prove he deserves a roster spot but I would not hold my breath if I were you.</div></div>
I'm starting to understand why your view of Barron doesn't match up with his minutes or other "advanced" stats. I'd suggest doing a little more digging into how Montreal used their D (look a minute weighing outside of elite competition, QoC rel weighing or just plain 5v5 TOI) or actually watch him play (and not just when he was struggling).
Regardless, but the odds that he gets outplayed to the degree that he would waived are exceedingly low. Maybe if he was a year older and had a longer track record of struggling, but I don't see it at all. And frankly, I hope you're right because that would mean SIGNIFICANT growth from Reinbacher and/or Mailloux, and growth of any young D is more important to Montreal in the long run.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Tue. at 3:37 p.m.
Thread:
Our GM cant use the word rebuild
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ledge_And_Dairy</b></div><div>Barron is not nearly as defensively reliable as Harris and Kovacevic, he does not bring the type of game that Xhekaj does, and as long as Savard is there he won't take that spot either. We will see once camp roles around but I would be shocked if he outperforms both Mailloux and Reinbacher.
Lets clarify, I am not calling Barron a bust, I am saying his trade value is borderline non-existent right now. Most teams have a Barron caliber player in their prospect pool already. Hell Ottawa placed both Bernard-Docker and Thomson on waivers last year, can you say with certainty that Barron is better than both of them at this point in time? Ask yourself, how much would you pay for Simon Holmstrom or Peyton Krebs right now? Probably not much</div></div>
There is not that much difference defensively between Barron and guys like Harris or Kovacevic, the difference is that Harris and Kovacevic generally played lower in the lineup against weaker competition and Barron was tasked to play a more offensive oriented role.
I'll once again reiterate that I do not care about Barron's trade value, so its irrelevant what I think Holmstrom or Krebs (or Coronato or Pelletier). Montreal is not going trade him or dump him to make room for players you think are further along than they actually are or for players that haven't had the same impact or upside.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Tue. at 2:56 p.m.
Thread:
Our GM cant use the word rebuild
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ledge_And_Dairy</b></div><div>Barron is below:
Guhle
Matheson
Savard
Harris
Xhekaj
Kovacevic
Hutson
Mailloux
Reinbacher
That's 9 defensemen.
It is also factual that Montreal has one of the worst d-core's in the NHL right now. That is mainly due to having an average age of 25.3 though. It takes time for defensemen to develop but ~3 years from now a core of Guhle, Mailloux, Reinbacher, and Hutson will probably be quite good.</div></div>
Barron is only below Hutson, Mailloux and Reinbacher in terms of upside (which does not matter in the present). He is simply not below Kovacevic or Harris. He's not even really below Xhekaj, Xhekaj just has a more uniqur/rare/valuable playstyle. It is factual that Montreal's D sucks.
You seem to be conflating your personal opinion of Barron with what Montreal will do. Montreal (or any team) is not going to dump a 22 year old RHD who has been good and shown growth for most of his career to make room for waiver exempt D that have even more work to do, LHD with less upside and impact, and replaceable veterans. Barron would need to stall for a much longer period of time and multiple guys would need to take big steps for that to happen.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Tue. at 12:17 p.m.
Thread:
Nucksters
Montreal definitely doesn't do that trade, and the Roy and Guentzel contracts are very optimistic.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mon. at 6:42 p.m.
Thread:
Our GM cant use the word rebuild
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ledge_And_Dairy</b></div><div>No it's actually significantly higher. Unless Barron takes drastic steps this summer he will remain the 10th best defenseman in Montreal's pool. And considering Montreal's D-core is currently one of the worst in the league that really emphasizes where he stands. I don't think Hughes is dumb enough to block Reinbacher or Mailloux from making the team just so he can keep Barron as a healthy scratch</div></div>
Lol, Barron is not the "10th best defenseman in Montreal's pool." Even if you include guys who have played no NHL games or only a couple. You don't like him or think Montreal's got 9 other "one of the worst" D better? Fine, but your assessment of both Barron as a player and of Montreal's D-core doesn't make any sense.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mon. at 6:16 p.m.
Thread:
Our GM cant use the word rebuild
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ledge_And_Dairy</b></div><div>Flames aren't going to sell low on Coronato and Buffalo doesn't need a goalie with the emergence of UPL.
Mangiapane is worth WAY more than a 4th, Calgary isn't going to sell low on him and will easily get a good return for him at the deadline with retention
Minten is a decent prospect but probably peaks as a 3C. Overall an underwhelming return for Andersson
Massive overpay for Barron, he's waiver fodder in a few months</div></div>
The chances that Barron is waiver fodder in a few months is about as good as Calgary valuing Coronato or Mangiapane as nil or negative value.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 23 at 3:29 p.m.
Thread:
Levshunov or Demidov
Zero reason for Montreal to trade Dvorak.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
May 23 at 1:04 p.m.
Thread:
not my favorite but doable
No that they're unfair, but those trades don't make sense for Chicago or Montreal.
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